A bit more than a year after the launch of ChatGPT, during the 2024 WEF Annual Meeting, discussions amongst leaders both inside and outside the Congress Center were dominated by AI while the Davos Promenade was filled with AI-related advertisements. In more than one instance throughout the week attendees had expressed high hopes for the upcoming AI transformation: it would unlock a new wave of double-digit productivity growth and address complex issues such as the water-energy-food nexus.
While most agreed that AI would deeply transform countless industries and, more broadly, the workplace as we know it, the degree of change remained dubious. Will AI take over routine tasks and leave individuals to deal with the more stimulating tasks or will it be the end of human work altogether? Interestingly, in the midst of these discussions around the future of work, questions from business leaders in Davos seem to touch upon meaning of life and individual purpose. What role will work play in our lives in the future?
Guided by two simple axes – the degree of AI adoption in the workplace and the degree to which humans derive purpose from work – I delve into four scenarios envisioning potential futures of how the widespread adoption of AI across all industries may transform the society I live in – I delve into four scenarios envisioning potential futures of how the widespread adoption of AI across all industries may transform the society I live in.
It's crucial to note that in all scenarios I assume a rather equal distribution of benefits from AI-driven productivity growth. Preventing the concentration of power and economic advantages among technology controllers is vital to avoid massive inequality and biases both within and across countries. In addition, the scenarios explored focus on the average European citizen, cross-country comparisons are not explored.
Quadrant I: Holistic Augmentation
While people continue to derive their income from work, AI seamlessly handles routine tasks enabling individuals to reduce their working time and maintain the same quality life-style. Project-based work gains prominence, prompting individuals to deepen their expertise in their specific domains while also putting a premium on adaptability and flexibility. These so-called character skills in Adam Grant’s book "Hidden Potential” become crucial for success. With heightened productivity per worker, individuals can afford to work less and dedicate more time to more purposely enriching activities.
Quadrant II: Leisure-Centric Society
AI carries out all production tasks while freeing individuals to pursue higher purposes and activities aligned with their passions. People derive the majority of their income from universal basic income systems and passive income models. Life is a quest for fulfilment outside of work in social, cultural and other activities. Societies progress towards highly automated production systems, and individuals focus on leisure, wellbeing, volunteering and community engagement activities. Education prioritises creativity and personal development, nurturing well-rounded individuals for a life free of traditional employment constraints.
Quadrant III: AI-Centered Workforce
In this rather bleak scenario, AI assumes the majority of work tasks depriving individuals of the sense of purpose traditionally derived from employment. Work becomes disconnected from income as individuals satisfy their material needs through universal basic income systems and other passive income streams. While many experience increased purchasing power the absence of work leaves individuals with an abundance of time. Leisure activities, participation in community services, creative endeavours, and lifelong learning initiatives fail to fill the void of identity and purpose that employment once offered. The sense of purposelessness leads to widespread boredom and dissatisfaction, sparking societal discontent and increasing the prevalence of anxiety and depression.
Quadrant IV: Synergistic Work Excellence
AI seamlessly manages routine tasks allowing individuals to shift their focus on more interesting and stimulating activities. While individuals continue to dedicate the same amount of time to work, the seamless integration of AI enhances human capabilities leading to new heights of technological innovation and increasing aggregated prosperity. The job market thrives, creating a wealth of opportunities especially for those with talents in innovation, creativity, and problem-solving. To navigate the fast-paced AI-enhanced work environment, people invest more in continuous learning and skill development. Work remains the cornerstone of individual identity and purpose but the traditional 9-to-5 daily structure gives way to more flexible work schedules as employment shifts to prioritising innovative and creative ideas.
What’s next?
While these four scenarios are by no means meant to be predictions of the future, I hope they can help initiate a conversation about the implications of AI in the workplace and beyond. Recognising the complexity of these questions and the need for detailed insights at the sector, regional or country level, I believe that exploring scenarios can be a useful guide for meaningful, collaborative dialogue and lay the foundation for informed decision-making. Connect with Horizon Group to explore scenarios relevant to your sector and uncertainties you are facing to catalyse meaningful dialogue and enhance your company’s future preparedness.
Reference
1. Workism is the belief that employment is not only necessary for economic production but it is also the centrepiece of one's identity and life purpose. (First defined by DerekThompson, in a 2019 article for The Atlantic magazine: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/02/religion-workism-making-americans-miserable/583441/).
